Week dominated by central banks

March 4, 2019

Quite a busy week coming up for markets, with a number of central banks holding interest rate meetings. A few central bank figures will also be speaking.

The EURUSD ended Friday trading in negative territory after it looked set for a strong showing. The pair opened at $1.13689 and traded flat early before a fall mid-session saw it bottom-out at $1.13522. The euro did not stay at that low for long, rallying to a high $1.14076 late in the day. However, it reversed its fortunes, falling into the close, closing at $1.13636. It has opened higher this morning and is currently trading at $1.13761. The GBPUSD struggled on Friday in what was a disappointing back-end to the week. The pound opened the day at $1.32599 and remained flat during the first half of the session, dipping to $1.32177 before climbing to a high of $1.32859 late in the day. The final hours of the week saw the pound fall to a low of $1.31709 before closing at $1.32017. It has opened higher and is currently trading at $1.32325.

The Dow ended Friday trading higher but a late sell-off meant the gains were less spectacular. The index opened at 25,917.62 and dipped to an early low of 25,896.32. The Dow rallied off that low and rallied most of the day, peaking at 26,145.68 late in the day. A sell-off after hitting that peak saw the Dow fall as far as 25,912.17 before a very late rally in the dying hours of the week meant it closed at 26,034.96. The Dow has had a strong start to the week, opening much higher and is currently trading at 26,167.42. The Dax opened much higher on Friday and was able to maintain those lofty heights throughout Friday trading. The German index opened at 11,601.36, around 90 points higher than its close on Thursday. The Dax dipped to a low of 11,579.23 early in the session before climbing to a high of 11,676.82 a few hours later. It came off those highs and remained steady for the rest of the session, closing at 11,631.99.

The week ahead is packed with data which will likely bring with it some volatility. This week sees Europe, Australia and Canada hold interest rate meetings, while central bank heads from the US, UK and Australia are all set to speak. Data released today and the most significant this week include:

Today – Australian Building Approvals, Company Operating Profits, ANZ Job Advertisements, MI Inflation Gauge and HIA New Home Sales, Japanese Monetary Base, UK Construction PMI, European PPI & Sentix Investor Confidence, Spanish Unemployment Change

Tuesday – RBA Rate Statement, Cash Rate and Australian Current Account

Wednesday – Australian GDP, BoE Governor Mark Carney and RBA Governor Philip Lowe speak

Thursday – European Main Refinancing Rate and ECB Press Conference, BoC Overnight Rate and Rate Statement, Canadian Trade Balance, Australian Retail Sales

Friday – US Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings, Canadian Unemployment Rate and Employment Change, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks


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