Non-Farm Friday

March 8, 2019

A stack of data is set for release throughout the day as we head into the weekend.

The euro tanked overnight on the back of the latest ECB interest rate meeting. ECB President Mario Draghi announced that the central bank was slashing growth forecasts and recognised that the European economy is weaker than their forecasts predicted. The EURUSD opened at $1.13051 and remained flat in the first half of the day. The pair lifted to a high of $1.13195 just before the ECB meeting. The negative tone of the meeting sparked a sell-off, with the euro collapsing more than a cent to bottom-out at $1.11751. It has come off those lows and is currently trading at $1.11906. The sell-off affected the pound as well as traders flocked to the USD as a safe-haven. The GBPUSD opened at $1.31675 and climbed to an early high of $1.31843. Mid and late-session trading saw the pound tumbled, eventually hitting lows of $1.30670 late in the day. It is currently trading at $1.30785.

The Dow continues to underwhelm, spooked by trade tensions and slower global economic growth. The index opened at 25,679.44 and declined early, before bumping up to a high of 25,721.64 mid-session. It gave up those gains, falling sharply to a low of 25,350.47 a couple of hours later. It has come off those lows and is currently trading at 25,458.68. The Dax was weighed down by the ECB’s outlook, while also being dragged down by the Dow. The German index opened at 11,534.34 and climbed to a high of 11.614.33 mid-session. Like the Dow, the Dax reversed those gains, falling sharply to a low of 11,447.97. It bounced off those lows and closed at 11,496.89.

The day ahead is packed full of data, headline by employment data from the US. The US is expected to add 181,000 jobs for the month of February, down from 304,000 the month before. As the economy is near to full employment, attention turns to the Average Hourly Earnings figure, which reflects wage growth. The wages are expected to grow by 0.3%, as opposed to 0.1% previously. This is a lofty figure but has been achieved before. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is expected to drop from 4% to 3.9%.

Other data released today includes:

UK – Consumer Inflation Expectations

China – Trade Balance, USD-Denominated Trade Balance, CPI, PPI

US – Building Permits, Housing Starts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks

Canada – Housing Starts, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Capacity Utilisation Rate

Europe – German Factory Orders, French and Italian Industrial Production, French Trade Balance

Japan – Bank Lending, Current Account, Final GDP Price Index, Final GDP, Average Cash Earnings, Economy Watchers Sentiment


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