US data in focus

May 15, 2019

A stack of data is being released today, with attention turning to the US.

The escalating trade war between the US and China has meant that traders have flocked to the US dollar, pushing paired currencies down overnight. The EURUSD opened at $1.12200 and made some modest gains early, peaking at $1.12432 mid-session. The euro gave up those gains quickly, falling to a low of $1.12001 late in the day. It is virtually at that low, currently trading at $1.12006. The GBPUSD opened at $1.29541 and ticked up to a high of $1.29693 early in the day. The pound battled its way through mid-session trading before succumbing under the weight of a strengthening USD. It hit a low of $1.29017 late in the day and is not far off that low at the moment, currently trading at $1.29065.

The Dow had a nice bounce back yesterday, suggesting that the Dow may have been over-sold. The index opened at 25,298.89 and dipped to an opening-hour low of 25,229.76. It came off those lows and battled its way up, posting modest gains in the first half of the session before picking up momentum late. The Dow hit highs of 25,695.31 late in the day but has come off those highs and is currently trading at 25,545.69. The Dax took its lead from the Dow and pegged back some of the losses sustained on Monday. The German index opened at 11,893.09 and dipped to a low of 11,883.84 in the opening hour of trade. The Dax climbed throughout most of the day, topping out at 12,017.22 before closing at 11,976.30.

The day ahead is packed with data from around the world, with the most significant data emanating from the US. The US will be publishing Retail & Core Retail Sales data. The expectations are for a sharp decline for both figures, with Retail Sales expected to grow by 0.7% (vs 1.2% at last reading) and Core Retail Sales forecast to grow by 0.2% (vs 1.6% at last reading).

Other data released today includes:

Australia – Wage Price Index

Japan – Prelim Machine Tool Orders, PPI

China – Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate

Canada – CPI, Core, Common, Median and Trimmed CPIs

Europe – German Prelim GDP, French Final CPI, European Flash GDP & Employment Change

US – Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilisation Rate, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index, Crude Oil Inventories, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Mortgage Delinquencies, FOMC Member Randal Quarles speaks


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